Future scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes or scenarios considering the major drivers of change in PSNP context which are population growth, land fragmentation, climate change and migration.
Five scenarios have been constructed as starting points for identifying key insights on challenges of food insecurity, diminution of landholding and land fragmentation in the PSNP areas. The findings of the future scenario can used as a basis to formulate research issues and portfolio of interventions within the BENEFIT-REALISE and to inform policy formulation and action revision at various levels. The scenarios detailed under was developed from a national and regional perspective and will be examined on 10 years’ time horizon. The scenarios have been constructed by REALISE staff with the support of selected professional consultants from different disciplines. The aim is to present a range of possible and different perspectives to freely stimulate new thoughts and ideas about future challenges, gaps in knowledge and research issues.
Given the 10-year timeframe (ten years from now) for the scenario development, it is necessary to complement traditional modelling approaches with a methodology that could represent possible future developments and states of reality through qualitative methods to offset inevitable uncertainty inherent in projections over such a duration.
Scenario 1: PSNP as usual stable PSNP population and growth of the population is absorbed by graduation.Assumptions:
- Resources are available for a fixed number of beneficiaries
- Graduation remains constant, so influx of new beneficiaries is possible
- The PSNP instrument aims to keep people in the village – no (seasonal or permanent) migration
- Is it manageable or do entry criteria have to become stringent?
- How many households will there be that under current criteria should be in the PSNP? (Identifying the demand and supply gap)
- What percentage of the PSNP population have no land (which means that there are no land-based solutions)?
Scenario 2: PSNP expanded to include all eligible persons (growing PSNP population) with limited agricultural intensificationAssumptions:
- No (seasonal) migration
- Graduation remains constant
- Resources are available for all eligible (elastic supply assumed)
- How big will be the PSNP population and budget?
- How much does this cost (at $60 per recipient – inflation corrected), also expressed in % of GDP?
Scenario 3: Labour migration of extreme small holders (<0.2 ha) and landless in different degrees (33 – 66 and 100%)Assumptions:
- Availability of work
- Graduation remains constant
- PSNP resources are constant
- People invest in intensification
- How big will be the PSNP population be with and without remittances assuming remittance with labour out migration?
- What will be the contribution to land consolidation (or at least redistribution of land)?
Scenario 4: Forced land consolidation towards 1 ha farmsAssumptions:
- Availability of work for migrants
- Land policies allow for a bottom of 1 ha.
- Mechanization will not take place
- Maximum number of labours per farm is 4
- How big will be the PSNP population?
- How many people have to migrate (laid off from agriculture)?
- What will be the contribution to agricultural production and productivity (per ha per person)?
Scenario 5: Securing minimum caloric requirement determines smallest land sizeAssumptions:
- One scenario with current productivity (1.3 Mt cereal equivalent)
- One scenario with max small holder productivity (4.5 Mt cereal equivalent)
- Land policies allow for a minimum land holding
- Mechanisation will not take place
- 5 persons per household and 2200 Kcal pp pd. (0.94 ha at 1.3 MT/ha and 0.27 ha at 4.5 MT/ha)
- How many people will be food sufficient at these production rates?
- How many people will be landless and thus PSNP clients at these production rates (or migrate?